Geopolitics on @ppmotskula

The Triangle of Power: A Review

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Alexander Stubb, The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order (Columbia Global Reports / Biteback Publishing, January 2026, 216 pp.)

There is something almost paradoxical about a sitting head of state publishing a book of serious international relations theory. Political memoirs are common enough; policy manifestos, dime a dozen. But The Triangle of Power is neither. Finnish President Alexander Stubb — former foreign minister, prime minister, finance minister, MEP, and Professor and Director of the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute in Florence — has written what is genuinely a work of political science, grounded in first-hand experience at the highest levels of diplomacy, and aimed at a fundamental question: what kind of world order comes after the one that is currently falling apart?

Justice Is Blind — Except When It Isn't

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Mon, 02 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On selective principles, strategic silence, and what small states stand to lose

On Sunday evening, 01 March 2026, two statements landed in quick succession. Estonia’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, meeting in extraordinary session, voiced support for the US-Israeli strikes on Iran. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas issued a statement on behalf of the Union that condemned Iranian retaliation as “inexcusable” while remaining entirely silent on the legality of the strikes that provoked it. Two statements, one evening, telling the same story by different means.

Two thoughts on Dear Leader

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Thu, 22 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

TL;DR

His tactics seem to be based on ruzzian “razvedka boem” (“разведка боем”).

His actions seem to be driven primarily by his own interests and those of his clan instead of the interests of his country and its people.

He announces new tariffs, then changes them, then withdraws them. He says he will end a war in 24 hours, then in two weeks, then says this war is none of his business. He jests about annexing a country or a part thereof, then proposes to buy it, then threatens military action, then says he’s made a great deal and decided that the won’t engage militarily. And so on and so on.

Dear Leader

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Tue, 20 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0000

On 18JAN26, Times of Israel published the full text of the Charter of the Board of Peace (local pdf). I fed it to ChatGPT 5.2 with a two-word prompt “analyse this”. The result (local pdf) is… interesting, to say the least.

The Chairman (named individually) is the central constitutional actor:

Sole authority to invite Member States (Art. 2.1)

Power to renew or terminate memberships (Art. 2.2(c), 2.3)

Approval right over all Board decisions (Art. 3.1(e))

Unilateral authority to create/dissolve subsidiaries (Art. 3.2(b))

Final interpreter of the Charter (Art. 7)

Authority to dissolve the organization unilaterally or by inaction (Art. 10.2)

I wouldn’t be surprised to see hordes of gute Amerikaner going “Hail Leader” very soon now. Or “친애하는 지도자동지”.

Finland’s Future in Four Worlds – Preparing for 2045

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Finnish Government’s 2025 Foresight Report, Part 1 (Tulevaisuusselonteon 1. osa) outlines four plausible worlds in 2045. It is not a prediction, but a strategic foresight tool – designed to help Finland anticipate global transformations, strengthen resilience, and actively shape its operating environment toward democracy, security, and sustainable prosperity.

Four Possible Worlds

Cooperation World. The rules-based international order endures. The EU remains cohesive, democracy and law are respected, and the green transition advances. Innovation and governance are predictable and fair. This is the most beneficial scenario for Finland – stable, secure, and cooperative.
Tech Giants’ World. Global corporations dominate data, AI, and standards. States lose regulatory power. IP and data governance are driven by commercial interests, and national security depends on private infrastructure.
Blocks’ World. The world divides into geopolitical blocs with conflicting norms, technologies, and values. The EU and NATO operate effectively within their bloc, but global cooperation weakens. Legal fragmentation and competing standards reduce innovation and trust.
Fragmenting World. Global coordination collapses. States focus on survival amid economic instability, climate crises, and hybrid threats. The rule of law and international institutions erode, forcing Finland to rely on comprehensive national defence and societal resilience.

Key Strategic Recommendations

The report gives no probabilities for the scenarios but urges Finland to be prepared for all – while working to steer the future toward the “Cooperation World.”