The Triangle of Power: A Review

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Tue, 07 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0000

Alexander Stubb, The Triangle of Power: Rebalancing the New World Order (Columbia Global Reports / Biteback Publishing, January 2026, 216 pp.)

There is something almost paradoxical about a sitting head of state publishing a book of serious international relations theory. Political memoirs are common enough; policy manifestos, dime a dozen. But The Triangle of Power is neither. Finnish President Alexander Stubb — former foreign minister, prime minister, finance minister, MEP, and Professor and Director of the School of Transnational Governance at the European University Institute in Florence — has written what is genuinely a work of political science, grounded in first-hand experience at the highest levels of diplomacy, and aimed at a fundamental question: what kind of world order comes after the one that is currently falling apart?

Finland’s Future in Four Worlds – Preparing for 2045

peeterpaul@motskula.net (Peeter P. Mõtsküla) — Mon, 03 Nov 2025 00:00:00 +0000

The Finnish Government’s 2025 Foresight Report, Part 1 (Tulevaisuusselonteon 1. osa) outlines four plausible worlds in 2045. It is not a prediction, but a strategic foresight tool – designed to help Finland anticipate global transformations, strengthen resilience, and actively shape its operating environment toward democracy, security, and sustainable prosperity.

Four Possible Worlds

Cooperation World. The rules-based international order endures. The EU remains cohesive, democracy and law are respected, and the green transition advances. Innovation and governance are predictable and fair. This is the most beneficial scenario for Finland – stable, secure, and cooperative.
Tech Giants’ World. Global corporations dominate data, AI, and standards. States lose regulatory power. IP and data governance are driven by commercial interests, and national security depends on private infrastructure.
Blocks’ World. The world divides into geopolitical blocs with conflicting norms, technologies, and values. The EU and NATO operate effectively within their bloc, but global cooperation weakens. Legal fragmentation and competing standards reduce innovation and trust.
Fragmenting World. Global coordination collapses. States focus on survival amid economic instability, climate crises, and hybrid threats. The rule of law and international institutions erode, forcing Finland to rely on comprehensive national defence and societal resilience.

Key Strategic Recommendations

The report gives no probabilities for the scenarios but urges Finland to be prepared for all – while working to steer the future toward the “Cooperation World.”

Finland on @ppmotskula

The Triangle of Power: A Review

Finland’s Future in Four Worlds – Preparing for 2045

Four Possible Worlds

Key Strategic Recommendations